The last taboo – martial law. It’s quite ironic that even with the whole Cory and EDSA I nostalgia earlier in the year that martial law is once again part of the Filipino consciousness. Maguindano might be far from the capital but the implications of this latest stunt by the administration does have great implications for our society now, for the coming elections, and for our future.
At the time of my writing, the Congress is holding a joint session and the debate is raging on about the legality and the morality of the declaration. What’s the use of declaring martial law in Maguindanao anyway? Is all due apparent lawlessness that escalated, culminating in the massacre of more than 50 people? That the Ampatuans are now rebels?
Let me take on a different perspective. I was watching re-watching Full Metal Jacket again this afternoon and being in a war/military mindset, let me delve into the military aspect aspect of this martial law. Everyoen’s wondering about the political front, so just to play devil’s advocate and another perspective, let me do just that.
How about attacking the issue on a military sense? As far as I can tell, the administration has not even outlined a concrete battleplan to resolve the issue through militay means. What’s and where is the battle plan?
Military science tells us that to win such a fight (which, I’m assuming what’s happening right now is technically a guerilla war between AFP forces and the Ampatuan’s private army), the military must both have a political and military objective, civil support, ample force build-up (including resources to have the upper hand if it turns to a battle of attrition), shift the battle from a hit-and-run to a more conventional engagement, and finally destroy not only the opposing force but also the philospophy to which the insurgency is anchored.
Now, I’m not an expert on these things but let me just throw these ideas out there.
So far, reports peg the number of Ampatuan’s men to a force of 3,000 men. That means that the AFP must deploy at whole brigade to match the number of Ampatuan’s men and given that Ampatuan’s forces are now in a defensive position, the military must hike up its force ratio.
And given the reports of the type of arsenal that the Ampatuans have manage to stash in various caches, I just wonder whether equipment will be a factor in the force ratio. (Having the bigger stick definitely swings the ration into your favor.) The military reports that they are finding M16s, large amounts of government-sourced ammunition and even armored transport in Ampatuan compounds. Aren’t those standard military issue as well?
So what would it take for the military to win this? More guns? More troops? Chances are, Ampatuan’s forces will have to yield to attrition if this gets any longer but with a 60-day cap, time isn’t on the military’s side. And who knows? Ampatuan’s forces are fighting on their own ground. Here’s what the military has claimed to have accomplished so far.
I just believe that the military has their task cut out for them. If this insurgency is not resolved by other means, Filipino lives will inevitably be lost – a real shame for a society that has taken pride in people power. And given the growing sentiment against the declaration of martial law, the military just doesn’t have the civil support that it needs to swing at least one factor in its favor.
And here’s the main factor why I doubt that a military action will be the best way to move forward – the end game. The administration is not fighting a conflicting ideology, it is simply trying to snuff out a monster that it has nurtured. It’s ironic actually, since this insurgency is basically the spoiled bastard child of warlordism that has come to bite our society and our government in the ass. How can you break the back of a long-standing ideology which pratically dictates the way Philippine politics is done?
We can all just hope that this gets resolved peacefully and justice be served.
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